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<span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt">The Institute for Analytical Sociology Seminar</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><span class="A8"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Venue: Zoom
</span></span><span class="A8"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">(see Zoom link in the end of the email)</span></span><span class="A6"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:windowtext"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="A6"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Wednesday October 14 @ 16:00</span><u><o:p></o:p></u></b></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><span lang="EN-US">__________________________________________________</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:SV">The fragile families challenge: Estimating the predictability of life trajectories using a scientific mass collaboration<o:p></o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:SV">Matthew J. Salganik<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:SV">Princeton University<o:p></o:p></span></i></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span class="gmail-il"><b><span lang="EN-US">Abstract</span></b></span><span lang="EN-US">: <br>
Researchers have long theorized about the processes through which childhood experiences shape life outcomes. However, statistical models that use data on family background and childhood experiences to predict life outcomes often have poor predictive performance.
In this talk, we present results from the Fragile Families Challenge, a scientific mass collaboration designed assess the limits of predictability of life outcomes and improve our understanding of these limits. Using data from the Fragile Fragile Families
and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality, birth cohort study that has followed thousands of mainly disadvantaged families for the past 15 years, 457 participants built predictive models of six life outcomes, such as a child’s grades in school or whether the
family would be evicted from their home. Research participants in the Challenge could use any theoretical, statistical, or machine learning approach they wished and could draw on the more than 12,000 variables that had been measured about the child, parents,
and family since the birth of the child. All predictions were evaluated on held-out data. Our empirical results have implications for social science theory, data, and methods and for algorithmic decision-making in high-stakes settings, such as child protective
services and criminal justice. [Joint work with Ian Lundberg, Alex Kindel, Sara McLanahan and hundreds of researchers].
<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Madelene Töpfer is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Topic: IAS Seminars<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Time: This is a recurring meeting Meet anytime<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Join Zoom Meeting<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://liu-se.zoom.us/j/65535789369"><span lang="EN-US">https://liu-se.zoom.us/j/65535789369</span></a><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Meeting ID: 655 3578 9369<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Dial by your location<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Meeting ID: 655 3578 9369<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Find your local number: <a href="https://liu-se.zoom.us/u/cdAMOQj78">
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US">Meeting ID: 655 3578 9369<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language:SV">Best regards<br>
Madelene Töpfer<br>
Administrator<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:SV">Institute for Analytical Sociology</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:SV"><br>
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