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<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:center">
<a name="_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt">The Institute for Analytical Sociology Seminar</span></a><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span class="A8"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Venue: Online on Zoom
</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span class="A8"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">(see Zoom link in the end of the email)</span></span></span><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span class="A6"><span style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:windowtext"><o:p></o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span class="A6"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif;color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></span></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;font-family:"Times New Roman",serif">Thursday, January 26 @
<b><u>14:30CET</u></b></span><u><o:p></o:p></u></span></p>
<p class="Pa8" align="center" style="margin-bottom:1.0pt;text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US">__________________________________________________</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p> </o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt">Cultural Macroevolution: Understanding the rise of large-scale complex societies in human history<o:p></o:p></span></b></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:18.0pt;color:black;mso-fareast-language:SV"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt">Peter Turchin<br>
Complexity Science Hub–Vienna<o:p></o:p></span></i></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" align="center" style="text-align:center"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-GB"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-GB">Abstract:<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt">During the Holocene the scale and complexity of human societies increased dramatically. Generations of scholars have proposed different theories explaining
this evolution, which range from functionalist explanations, focusing on the provision of public goods, to conflict theories, emphasizing the role of class struggle or warfare. To quantitatively test these theories, I develop a general dynamical model, based
on the theoretical framework of cultural macroevolution. Using this model and <i>
Seshat: Global History Databank</i> I test 17 potential predictor variables (and >100,000 combinations of these predictors) proxying mechanisms suggested by major theories of sociopolitical complexity. The best-fitting model indicates a strong causal role played
by a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and warfare intensity, proxied by invention/adoption of military technologies (most notably, iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE). Overall, these empirical results support the idea that
a major evolutionary force explaining the rise of large-scale complex human societies, organized as states, was Cultural Multi-Level Selection.
<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:12.0pt"><o:p> </o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US">Topic: IAS Seminars<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US">Join Zoom Meeting<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"></span><a href="https://liu-se.zoom.us/j/65535789369"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US">https://liu-se.zoom.us/j/65535789369</span></span><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"></span></a><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-bookmark:_Hlk69118321"><span lang="EN-US">Meeting ID: 655 3578 9369</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom:12.0pt"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language:SV">Best regards<br>
Madelene Töpfer<br>
Administrator<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:SV">Institute for Analytical Sociology</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;mso-fareast-language:SV"><br>
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Mobile: +46 (0)700 89 66 97<br>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Arial",sans-serif;color:#626262;mso-fareast-language:SV">E-mailing Linköping University will result in Linköping University
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